ASEAN LINES

Why 44% fewer cancelled sailings could be [blanking] bad news for SoCal trucking   02/07/2025 Drewry: Trans-Pacific capacity lining up with demand

Blanked, or cancelled, sailings by container carriers on key east–west routes are expected to fall 6% in June from the previous month, with a steeper 44% decline seen in July, mainly on weaker trans-Pacific lanes.

The latest forecast from shipping consultant Drewry found that of the 713 scheduled sailings across the key trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, and Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean routes, 48 sailings are expected to be cancelled between weeks 27 (June 30–July 6) and 31 (July 28-August 3), a 7% cancellation rate.

Drewry said the majority of blank sailings over the next five weeks are expected on the trans-Pacific eastbound route (46%), followed by Asia–North Europe/Med (38%), and trans-Atlantic westbound (17%). During the same period, schedule reliability is improving, with 93% of weekly departures expected to sail as planned.

Weaker demand by shippers on Asia-U.S. routes could mean leaner times for logistics providers around the southern California container import gateways. Fewer containers means less freight for drayers and local trucking, and corresponding lower rates for carriers competing for shipments. Blank sailings can also pinch chassis availability as fewer empty containers are picked up from the ports.

Trans-Pacific rates have reversed recent gains, dropping 37% over the past two weeks amid weaker demand and increased capacity, according to Drewry, a data partner in SONAR. 

“Asia–Europe/Med rates remain 44% above May averages but appear to be stabilizing,” Drewry said. “Carriers are reviewing capacity as demand shows signs of softening. With the U.S. tariff pauses nearing expiry in July and August, demand is expected to ease further. In response, carriers are actively adjusting capacity through blank sailings and service changes.”

Drewry’s World Container Index fell 9% w/w to $2,983 on June 26, with trans-Pacific rates down 16%, Asia–Europe/Med up 1% and trans-Atlantic unchanged.